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Immediate Prophecy
2004-03-25 18:20
by Score Bard

Am I a jinx or something? Just hours after I had written that the A's bench is not a bottomless pit, my statement gets tested. Mark Ellis is out 6-8 weeks after dislocating his shoulder in a collision with Bobby Crosby.

We'll soon find out how valuable Ellis' defense really is. If Hudson and Mulder start giving up a lot more hits than usual this April, we'll know why.

Although Frank Menechino is also hurt, the A's shouldn't miss much offensively. And this illustrates what I enjoy most about watching Billy Beane work. You can talk all you want about Hudson, Mulder, Zito and Chavez, but Beane's real genius shows up in the 35th-40th men on the roster. He creates depth at every position. When Ellis gets hurt, he not only has one competent backup, he has three (with Baseball Prospectus projections):

NameOBPSLG
Mark Ellis.325.378
Frank Menechino.342.334
Marco Scutaro.337.412
Esteban German.326.347
Now compare those numbers to the projected numbers of the other middle infield backups in the AL West:
Willie Bloomquist, Sea.303.341
Ramon Santiago, Sea.317.339
Chone Figgins, Ana.311.363
Adam Riggs, Ana.299.380
Alfredo Amezaga, Ana.295.343
Jason Bourgeois, Tex.297.363
Eric Young, Tex.336.371

The entire division has only one middle infield backup, Eric Young, who is a better hitter than the A's fourth-string second baseman. That's why Billy Beane is so good. And that's why I said the A's can win a war of attrition.

I just wish I wasn't so right so soon.

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